Resilience in an era of global economic crisis

Economic uncertainty is no longer an occasional disruption—it has become the defining condition of our time.

Across Kenya, Africa, and the wider global economy, individuals, businesses, and institutions are contending with rising inflation, geopolitical instability, climate shocks, supply chain disruptions, and digital transformation at breakneck speed.

From the fluctuating value of the Kenyan shilling to global interest rate hikes and cost-of-living pressures, the message is clear: stability is no longer a guarantee. And yet, within this uncertainty lies opportunity. Those who are willing to reframe disruption as a catalyst for reinvention will not only survive, but thrive.

In Kenya, inflation hovered around 6.5% in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. The cost of basic commodities has continued to rise, putting pressure on households and micro-enterprises alike. Globally, the World Bank projects economic growth to slow to just 2.4% in 2025, signaling a fragile recovery. But in this fragility, there are signs of strength. In Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu, small businesses are adapting with creativity. In rural counties, digital platforms are enabling new trade networks and gig work. In every challenge, resilience is taking root.

For individuals, especially young people, the job-for-life concept has become obsolete. In today’s fast-evolving economy, career resilience is built not on titles but on transferable skills, networks, and adaptability. Platforms like Coursera and LinkedIn Learning have seen a surge in enrolment across Africa, with Kenyan professionals increasingly pursuing self-paced upskilling in areas like data analytics, digital marketing, and AI ethics. The rise of the “multi-skilled professional” is a natural response to a world where job markets shift with geopolitical winds.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which form over 90% of Kenya’s private sector, are especially exposed to market volatility. They face challenges with access to capital, rising operational costs, and fluctuating consumer demand. Yet they are also the most flexible segment of the economy. During the Covid-19 pandemic, many SMEs pivoted quickly—shifting to e-commerce, embracing mobile logistics, and rethinking customer engagement through digital tools. According to the Central Bank of Kenya, SMEs that adopted digital tools recovered revenue 1.6 times faster than those that remained offline.

For larger enterprises, efficiency alone is no longer sufficient. The ability to absorb shocks and remain adaptive—what experts call resilience engineering—is now a strategic imperative. Forward-looking companies are localising supply chains, investing in AI-driven analytics, and embedding sustainability into their business models.

 Governments, too, play a crucial role. As economic shocks hit vulnerable populations the hardest. Kenya’s Hustler Fund, for example, has helped inject liquidity into grassroots enterprises. But beyond social buffers, the real test lies in investing in skills development, digital infrastructure, and regulatory environments that foster inclusive growth.

Dr Muriithi is Head of Marketing, Communication, International Relations & Student Recruitment, The Catholic University of Eastern Africa