Is carbon removal Africa's missing climate solution?
Carbon emission into the environment.
What you need to know:
- Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations are forecast to reach an annual average of about 426.6 parts per million (ppm) this year, levels likely unmatched in over two to three million years.
While efforts to reduce carbon emissions remain paramount across the globe, addressing the already accumulated atmospheric carbon is increasingly critical for meeting climate goals.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations are forecast to reach an annual average of about 426.6 parts per million (ppm) this year, levels likely unmatched in over two to three million years. Monthly peak concentrations, such as those expected in May may approach 429.6 ppm, underscoring the persistent upward trajectory.
This concentration marks an estimated 52 per cent increase compared to pre-industrial levels of approximately 280 ppm and continues to rise steadily.
Recent observations indicate the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ has averaged around 2.4 to 2.5 ppm in recent years. These figures are above the roughly 1.8 ppm per year consistent with pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C, according to the UK Met Office and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
To remain within the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement, global CO₂ emissions would need to decline by roughly 50 per cent by 2030 and reach net zero around mid-century, while also slowing atmospheric CO₂ accumulation. With global CO₂ emissions at approximately 36.8 billion tonnes annually, halting emissions alone is insufficient. Removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is essential to reverse the historical buildup and mitigate worsening climate impacts.
What is carbon removal?
Also known as carbon dioxide removal (CDR), it refers to techniques that extract CO₂ directly from the atmosphere and sequester it securely for decades or centuries. Unlike carbon offsetting, which balances emissions in one location against reductions elsewhere, carbon removal directly reduces atmospheric CO₂, offering long-term climate benefits if storage is permanent. This distinction is crucial to understanding CDR's role in a comprehensive climate strategy.
According to the International Energy Agency, Africa contributed about 3.7 per cent of global CO₂ emissions in 2022. Despite this modest share, the continent is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. This contrast, minimal historical responsibility yet maximum exposure, positions Africa uniquely in global climate negotiations and as a potential site for meaningful carbon removal efforts.
Despite the potential, Africa remains largely absent from the global carbon removal investment landscape. Countries like Kenya, however, present promising foundations for participation. With an expanding renewable energy base and abundant geothermal resources, Kenya is well-positioned to host pilot-scale technological removal projects. Yet, concerns remain that such initiatives could deflect from critical emissions reductions or marginalise local communities if implemented without equity safeguards.
Kenya has introduced measures to regulate carbon markets through amendments to its Climate Change Act. The National Environment Management Authority serves as the Designated National Authority, guiding the approval of carbon projects through a structured process. Developers must obtain a letter of no objection, submit a project design document, and secure interagency approval before implementation.
The country's emerging measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) system complements this. While still undergoing capacity development, the system aligns with Paris Agreement transparency requirements and enables information sharing domestically and internationally. It is projected to allow the National Climate Change Council to assess whether priority actions are achieving expected outcomes. These institutional mechanisms could strengthen Kenya's potential role in carbon removal, provided that safeguards and local benefits are prioritised.
Nature-based solutions versus technological approaches
Natural carbon sinks already play a vital role across Africa. The Congo Basin Forest and Kenya's coastal mangroves are among the continent's key carbon sequestration ecosystems. Yet, these natural assets face mounting pressures from deforestation, land-use change, and infrastructure development. Beyond forests, soil carbon sequestration through agroecological practices provides dual benefits by enhancing agricultural resilience and increasing carbon storage. Kenya's vast arid and semi-arid landscapes offer considerable potential for these practices, though effectiveness and permanence vary by region.
Investment in carbon removal technologies has accelerated globally. In 2023, venture capital investment in early-stage carbon removal companies reached approximately $1.25 billion. The trend continued into 2024, with Direct Air Capture (DAC) startups alone attracting an estimated $400 million (Sh51 billion) in funding. However, the cost of removing one tonne of CO₂ via DAC remains high, typically ranging from $600 (Sh77,528) to $1,000 (Sh129,213), although future economies of scale and innovation may significantly reduce this.
While technological innovations like DAC attract headlines, nature-based solutions remain the most accessible and cost-effective carbon removal tools for Africa. By comparison, existing global DAC facilities remove over 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes annually. For example, STRATOS, an industrial-scale DAC facility under development by Occidental Petroleum in the United States, is projected to remove 500,000 tonnes of CO₂ annually once operational, potentially by 2025 or 2026. Yet even these ambitious technical figures remain small relative to the potential of healthy ecosystems.
Carbon removal presents Africa with both a strategic opportunity and a cautionary challenge. The continent must carefully align carbon removal with emission reduction priorities, while building domestic technical capacity and embedding community leadership in project design. Doing so can ensure that African nations shape carbon removal implementation to support climate resilience and development objectives.
