Silent wars in opposition camp over 2027 presidential flagbearer

Mr Gachagua has, however, dismissed talk of cracks and vowed to ensure President Ruto loses the 2027 vote, even if he (Gachagua) were to play the kingmaker role. Unless cleared by courts, Mr Gachagua – who was impeached as DP last year – cannot run for the country’s top seat.

On Wednesday, the former DP said the people of Mt Kenya can vote for anyone, having done so for President William Ruto in 2022.

“They proved that they are not tribal,” he said at a press briefing in Nairobi. 

Mr Gachagua accused the President of sowing seeds of discord in the opposition ranks. He said the opposition would remain united and urged Kenyans to be patient until the person to face President Ruto and the power-sharing formula are unveiled in December next year.

Silent power struggle

“As patriots, we shall do the right thing. We shall put our interests aside for the sake of Kenya,” Mr Gachagua said.

Insiders in the camp talk of a silent power struggle. At the heart of the war is who between Dr Matiang’i and Mr Musyoka should carry the opposition flag.

Mr Kenyatta is reportedly backing Dr Matiang’i while Mr Gachagua is said to be for Mr Musyoka.

Jubilee, through Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni, has endorsed Dr Matiang’i, describing him as the “ideal reformist with the experience and personality to lead the nation”.

Mr Kioni recently said plans are on to front Dr Matiang’i as the party’s presidential candidate. But in a recent interview, Dr Matiang’i denied being an “Uhuru project”, saying his focus is on public service and uniting Kenya. He questioned the rationale of being labelled a “project.”

“What does being someone’s project mean?” he asked, adding that he was Mr Kenyatta’s Cabinet Secretary for 10 years.

“Why are you not asking if I’m the World Bank’s project? I ’ve just come from there,” he said.

The drive by Jubilee has rattled other factions in the opposition, especially DCP, which is gaining popularity in Mt Kenya.

Last year, the Wiper leader’s community was “integrated” into the Gema Cultural Association, to make him part of the larger group ahead of 2027.

Read: How Opposition has employed Raila’s playbook to deal with President Ruto

The ceremony, which climaxed at the All Saints Cathedral in Nairobi, saw Kikuyu Council of Elders, Embu Council of Elders, Meru’s Njuri Ncheke and the Akamba Clan Governing Council conduct rituals.

“Mr Gachagua’s recent statement and public salutation in the company of Mr Musyoka – the famous ‘hi cousins’ – summed it all. He gave the clearest sign that Mt Kenya would be more comfortable supporting Mr Musyoka than any other candidate in the opposition,” an opposition insider told the Daily Nation.

Mr Gachagua has stirred controversy in the opposition by asking Dr Matiang’i to reject Jubilee as his election vehicle.

He asked Dr Matiang’i to form a party for the purpose of negotiating in the opposition coalition.

Analysts perceive the suggestion by Mr Gachagua as part of his strategy to ring-fence Mt Kenya for his party.

Prof Macharia Munene, a university lecturer, says there is a general feeling that key political players should have a support base before entering into coalitions.

“If he is accepted by the people, irrespective of the party, he would still be voted. I don’t think Matiang’i could be a threat to Gachagua in Mt Kenya,” Prof Munene argued.

Running on the Jubilee ticket is likely to rejuvenate the former ruling party in Mt Kenya and could present competition for DCP.

Jubilee enjoys name recognition and structures across the country. Having Dr Matiang’i as the Jubilee flagbearer would also mean more allegiance to Mr Kenyatta.

These dynamics present a risk of denying Mr Gachagua a clean sweep in the region. Mr Kioni accuses the former DP of perpetuating the politics of “shareholders” in the opposition. 

He says they would reject any attempt to reduce national leaders to regional kingpins.

“I am happy with Dr Matiang’i. He is up to the task. I saw how he worked in President Kenyatta’s government. To be respected, he needs a political vehicle,” Mr Gachagua said in an interview with Egesa FM.

In Western Kenya, a war is playing out between Mr Wamalwa and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.

Despite being Wamalwa’s protégé, having been elected on a DAP-K ticket, Mr Natembeya has emerged as a formidable force with his “Tawe Movement”, which has drawn massive grassroots support.

Observers say the governor’s growing popularity and criticism of Kenya Kwanza and some opposition leaders have left Mr Wamalwa politically eclipsed.

The strained relation between the two is said to be complicating DAP-K’s position in the opposition coalition talks.

Adding fuel to the fire, Mr Musyoka’s allies recently pushed for the exclusion of Mr Kioni from coalition negotiations, accusing him of bias.

Read: 'Shoot in the leg': Ruto declares war on protesters, sponsors

President Ruto this week told his opponents to prepare for a tough contest in 2027, criticising what he termed as their attempt to “overthrow me through illegitimate means”.

“Table your agenda and let us meet in 2027. The say they will no longer wait for 2027. That they plan violence and to overthrow the government. Let them dare,” he said in Nairobi on Wednesday. 

Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, an ally of Dr Matiang’i, says the opposition has formed a team to explore the options of running on Jubilee or resorting to a regional party just like other leaders, who have declared interest in the presidency.

“There are those who feel that Dr Matiang’i needs a recognised party with structures. Then there are those saying serious political players have their parties with regional identity,” Mr Onyonka said.

Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru, who is allied to Mr Gachagua, says the suggestion that Dr Matiang’i seeks a new party is good advice “to shield him from future humiliation”.

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