Gachagua’s ground game: Delicate balancing act on the big stage

He has made it clear in numerous pronouncements that his objective is a political party that will principally champion Mt Kenya aspirations before going on to team up with other regional groupings for the push to reduce Dr Ruto to a one-term President.

It was billed in advance as an event carrying major political ramifications, but the announcement of the hitherto unknown Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) was something of an anti-climax, even though this was branded as an “unveiling” with the “launch” expected in early June.

Read: Gachagua’s gamble: New party, old foes in fresh power battle

It was a low-key affair lacking the fanfare one would expect of a political movement that wants to project itself as the biggest threat to Dr Ruto’s quest for a second term in office come the 2027 elections.

That there were no political heavyweights other than Mr Gachagua himself as party leader in the hierarchy of the new outfit might also have put a damper on things, and called into question whether the former DP really commands the kind of political clout he claims.

Read:  'Hustler Season 2: How Gachagua stole Ruto’s script

Apart from a few politicians with name recognition, most of those in the line-up are little-known leaders, who do not by any stretch of the imagination act as a signal to the new party’s potential to sweep the Mt Kenya region or to pose a serious challenge to Dr Ruto on the national arena.

Mr Gachagua, who formally resigned from President Ruto’s governing UDA party shortly before revealing his new outfit, named a close ally, Cleophas Malala, as the Deputy Party Leader. Mr Malala is the former senator for Kakamega in Western Kenya and also ex-secretary-general of UDA. He was recently in the news after penning and directing the Butere Girls High School play, Echoes of War, which was controversially banned from being staged at the finals of the National Schools Drama Festival.

Other interim officials in Mr Gachagua’s party drawn from outside Mt Kenya are; David Mingati, a largely anonymous man from Kajiado County, was named as the National Chairman.

Equally low-profile are Deputy Chairperson (operations) Margaret Sarah Owino from Kisumu County, Secretary-General Hezron Obanga from Kisii County and his deputy, Martin Kamwaro, from Narok County.

Also in the line-up is Anne Mutua from Machakos County as National Treasurer and Thomas Mwita, who is the Deputy National Treasurer (operations). Hussein Athmani comes in as Secretary for Tourism, John Maraga represents people living with disabilities, Andrew Kiplimo Muge (Director of Elections), and Alex Khamasi (National Coordinator-Counties)

The rest of the interim officials are from Mt Kenya region, the best-known being former Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mithika Linturi as National Organising Secretary.

Mr Linturi’s national profile, however, is not necessarily a credit. He is best remembered for a string of scandals, including the alleged distribution of fake fertiliser during his time in the critical Agriculture ministry, as well some sordid court cases. He has always maintained his innocence.

Ex-MPs in the team include former Laikipia Woman Representative Cate Waruguru as the National Women's Leader, former Limuru MP Peter Mwathi as Deputy Chair of Strategy and former Cabinet Secretary and veteran Nairobi political operative Maina Kamanda as Chairperson of the Council of Eminent Persons.

Read:  Return of regional parties and kingpins

Hardly any of the officials are household names or are considered to have big political influence. Mr Gachagua’s supporters will argue that the officials named will just hold office in interim capacity, and will at some point give way to better-known leaders as the clock ticks towards the 2027 elections.

They will also argue that the ceremony at the party headquarters in Nairobi’s Lavington suburb was simply to reveal DCP as his new political vehicle, with more razzmatazz expected at the official launch set for June 4.

There were also eyebrows raised that the other principal figures in the opposition coalition being crafted to take battle to Dr Ruto were absent at the Thursday event.

However, figures close to Mr Gachagua deny that the other opposition figures snubbed the event. It is expected that Wiper Party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, a former Vice President, and former Interior Cabinet Secretary in retired President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government, Dr Fred Matiang’i, will command star-billing at the June launch of the DCP. Both are declared presidential aspirants.

Mr Musyoka, who has twice been Mr Raila Odinga’s running mate— in 2013 and 2017— is determined to, this time round, carry the opposition banner, while Dr Matiang’i, who is making his electoral politics debut, has secured the support of Mr Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party.

Both are also courting Mr Gachagua’s support, which will be invaluable if the former DP has the ability to swing the largest regional voting bloc to a preferred candidate. Mr Gachagua cannot himself be a candidate unless the courts overturn his impeachment, a long shot at best. But even if there wasn’t that hurdle, he has recognised that the climate is not right for the populous Mt Kenya, which has produced three of five State House tenants, to have a stab at the seat.

Read:  Gachagua, opposition leaders vow to make Ruto one-term President

He has committed to throwing his weight behind a person from another region, and early on implicitly endorsed Mr Musyoka, whom he even purported to admit as a son of the Mt Kenya community. Last year the former DP said that the final letter in Gema — the Kikuyu, Embu, Meru Association — could also stand for “Akamba”, the Wiper leader’s lower eastern Kenya ethnic base.

But there have been signs of growing rivalries since Dr Matiang’i entered the fray after spending most of the last two years working in the United States for the World Bank.

Some of Mr Musyoka’s loyalists have openly dismissed Dr Matiang’i as a Johnny-Come-Lately with little political pedigree and no evidence that he can bring anything to the table beyond a small Kisii base.

They have also wondered how he can run for president relying on Mr Kenyatta’s patronage — when the former president, while enjoying the power of office — could not influence the election of a much more powerful and grounded politician in Mr Odinga.

Just before unveiling his party, Mr Gachagua also made some jarring comments that were not taken too kindly by supporters of Dr Matiang’i. He publicly dismissed the notion of backing the once powerful former Interior CS unless he can demonstrate a total grip of the Kisii vote and whatever other bloc within the wider Nyanza region to bring to the opposition basket.

Mr Gachagua also suggested that Dr Matiang’i should cease relying on the Jubilee Party endorsement, and instead craft his own political party, presumably one that could command the Kisii base, as a basis for angling for support.

It is probable that Mr Gachagua’s unsolicited advice is grounded, not so much on concern for Dr Matiangi’s prospects, but jitters about Mr Kenyatta’s capacity to direct the Mr Kenya vote.

Since his fallout with Dr Ruto, Mr Gachagua has worked tirelessly to gain command of the populous region. But, ironically, his impeachment served to make room for Mr Kenyatta to regain some of the influence he had in the Mountain.

At the 2022 elections, Mr Kenyatta, who once had almost fanatical support in Mt Kenya, failed in his quest to swing his voter base to Mr Odinga. Mr Gachagua, as Dr Ruto’s point man in the region, was happy to claim credit that Mt Kenya voted almost unanimously for the Kenya Kwanza Alliance candidate, though all evidence points to the fact that the vote was already locked-up before he was named running-mate.

Read:  'Hustler Season 2: How Gachagua stole Ruto’s script

In frustration at the way his pitch for Mr Odinga was rejected, Mr Kenyatta at times warned the Mt Kenya voters that they would live to regret ignoring his advice and direction.

Mr Gachagua’s ejection from the Kenya Kwanza power structure, as well as the confluence of events — economic hardships, high taxation, human rights abuses, runaway corruption — leading to the Gen Z uprising of last June, served as vindication for Mr Kenyatta’s previous warning against voting for Dr Ruto. He, in the process, earned a great deal of sympathy, and even though he is not directly involved in electioneering, his words will probably carry great weight in the region.

It follows that Mr Gachagua’s command of the Mt Kenya vote is not guaranteed as long as Mr Kenyatta has a say and remains determined to throw his support to a candidate other than the one backed by the impeached DP.

United front

That will signal not only a declined role for Mr Gachagua, but also herald the prospect of a split Mt Kenya vote which would work hugely in Dr Ruto’s favour.

So far, however, the emerging opposition alliance is managing to paper over the cracks, trying hard to shift attention from possible tussles to each of the principals building his own base before negotiations begin on a single candidate under a united front.

From a series of meetings and rallies in which Mr Gachagua is clearly the key player, it is emerging that the regional kingpins are the former DP himself holding Mt Kenya, Mr Musyoka for Ukambani, and former Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and former Trade Minister Mukhisa Kituyi for Western Kenya. Dr Matiang’i could well come to control the Kisii vote, but at the helm of a minority within the Nyanza region. He will have to spread his wings further across, and package himself on national appeal rather than ethnic arithmetic.

Despite what seems like wholesale rejection of Dr Ruto in the Mt Kenya region, as well as many other parts of the country, where the Gen Z revolt inspired a political consciousness not confined to the usual ethnic fault lines, it is apparent that the opposition has not captured influential champions in key areas.

The Ruto camp has commissioned a number of political opinion polls, whose results raise concern about general dissatisfaction with his rule across the country, but the picture is not too bleak when broken down into regions. This might be because the opposition evidently lacks influential champions in huge swathes of the country.

Read:  Oburu Oginga: Ruto’s 2027 ODM backing hinges on delivery

The political minnows paraded on the announcement of Mr Gachagua’s party are also a reflection of the opposition alliance failing to move aggressively into some key regions beyond the ones controlled by some of the principals.

Dr Ruto’s northern Rift Valley remains largely in his corner despite rumblings of discontent. The Nyanza region significantly shifted with Mr Odinga to Dr Ruto’s side since the opposition chief entered the broad-based government alliance.

Mr Odinga’s support base in Western, has also somewhat shifted with him, while the bases in the same region loyal to Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula also remain largely intact. The votes in the Coast region and North Eastern, perceived to be controlled by Mr Odinga, based on previous polls, have also moved with him.

However, ethnic arithmetic based on traditional voting patterns could be redundant in the new dispensation wrought by the Gen Z revolt.

While focus might be on the opposition’s lack of a credible, unifying figure and the threat of splits over presidential aspirations, Kenya Kwanza also has its share of cracks.

The emergence of Mr Odinga as the effective Number Two without portfolio has called into question the value of Deputy President Kithure Kindiki unless he can effectively counter the Gachagua juggernaut in Mt Kenya. Presumption that he is Dr Ruto’s designated successor no longer holds.

Mr Mudavadi has also been angling for the slot, which played a major role in the decision to dissolve his ANC party and join Ruto’s UDA. Mr Odinga’s entry has relegated him an effective pecking order.

Clearly, there will be many twists and turns in days to come as Mr Gachagua fine-tunes his plan to reduce Dr Ruto to a one-term President.

A glitzy official launch is planned for his new political party next month, which might serve as an indicator of the key figures preparing to cross over form Kenya Kwanza into his corner.

[email protected]; @MachariaGaitho